Hitting Against the Spin: How Cricket Really Works

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Ben Jones, an analyst at Cricviz, and Nathan Leamon, England’s analyst with a math degree from Cambridge. put together this revolutionary book. In their own words, “Michael Lewis wrote Moneyball: The Art of the Winning”, book about the data revolution at Oakland A’s. It’s one of the most influential books ever written about sport, and sparked a wave of change that left very few sports in the world untouched.” (316). This and many other lessons are set out in his new book Hitting Against The Spin, which seeks to explain some of the game’s hidden patterns and overlooked trends. Why India produces relatively few left-handed batsmen (largely because spin is a bigger threat in the early overs). Why Nasser Hussain was (statistically) right to bowl first at Brisbane in 2002. And why the frequent incantations for fast bowlers to “just pitch it up” often do more harm than good. Data democratizes truth. It makes us all, perhaps not equal, but closer to equal in the validity of our thoughts. It allows to tell right from wrong, insightful from mistaken… The data is never enough on its own. But expert insight buttressed by objective fact has a far better chance of being truth than myth and story.” (365)

Why is this? The answer is simple enough. At heart I am a traditionalist, and like my books to fall into predictable genres, such as biographies, autobiographies, tour books and history books. Seeing the title of this one, coupled with the appearance on the front cover of scribbled mathematical formulae, I immediately realised its content would probably be outside of my comfort zone. When you’re in a battle with a spin bowler, it’s important to not allow them to settle into a rhythm of bowling exactly where they want to. Spinners love nothing more than being able to bowl their line and lengths and land ball after ball in the same spot, while a batsman plays defensively. The worst thing for a spinner to bowl against is a batsman that takes calculated risks and puts them under pressure. This makes it harder for them to find a bowling rhythm! Chesterton’s Fence (a story made up by the writer and philosopher G.K. Chesterton to illustrate conservative thinking):It is similar when we are analysing or collecting data in any area of work, which has not been studied before. Will the data prove any current ideas to be a tethered cat or a fence? The idea being that you shouldn’t remove a rule or tradition unless you understand why it was first put in place. James held degrees in both English and Economics, and the ability to articulate the world of one with the words of the other was key"__Nathan Leamon on Bill James, who spawned Sabermetrics, whose story and execution was best exemplified in the popular book/movie Moneyball

Now this sounds obvious, but England were expected to do well in the 5 World Cups between 1999 and 2015, yet were never in the top three teams for any of these metrics! They changed things going into the 2019 World Cup, and were the number 1 team for the three metrics, with the highest run rate, best win percentage, and most squad experience, and went on to win the World Cup.Here are some other quotes that were quite revealing, but to understand the true context, you should read the book.

The forward press is basically a small forward movement of the front foot that is made just before the spinner delivers the ball. As well as moving your front foot forwards, you should lean forwards slightly over your front knee. This gets your bodyweight moving forwards towards the ball. In my opinion, this is the best position you can get yourself in before you receive a spinning delivery.

This is the problem with Tethered Cats. Sometimes, a perfectly reasonable response to current circumstances becomes a habit, then a tradition, then an article of faith that outlives the circumstances that created it. We rarely question what we know to be self-evidently true, particularly when everyone else is doing the same thing. And so, the bias towards batting first seems to have outlived the circumstances that created it by several decades (175).

One test of how well written any book on this sort of subject is how it goes about attempting to explain the mysteries of swing bowling and, more particularly, reverse swing. For those of us old enough to recall when Pakistan’s seamers were branded as cheats Leamon and Jones explain succinctly why they were anything but. One of the key commentaries in the book is about the warnings of data. Statistics and data are only useful if analyzed from an unbiased point of view. If it is used to prove a personal point or win an argument, then it is of no use. The authors also distinguish Simplicity vs Complexity and how both perspectives are necessary to properly embed data into the context of the game. QuotesIf you’re batting and you see fielders being placed close to you, I’d recommend trying to play with ‘soft hands’. This basically means that you don’t force your hands towards the ball. Instead, you try to play passively and allow the ball to hit your bat. Playing in this way means that if you do make a mistake, the ball is less likely to carry to a fielder! This Diagram Shows How Some Spinners May Try To Land The Ball Outside Leg Stump & Spin The Ball Across You Beware of Fielders Placed Close To The Bat I also knew that both authors were heavily invested in statistics and analysis. Never forgetting the fearsome struggle I had as a teenager to pass ‘O’ Level physics I have always tended to steer clear of anything scientific, and that was another factor that put me off.