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We know that climate change is making these problems worse, increasing the number of adverse weather events, with these events becoming more frequent and intense in the years ahead.

As the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture, at a rate of 7% more moisture for every degree of warming. On a simple level, this explains why in many regions of the world projections show an increase in precipitation as a consequence of human induced climate change. It’s really important to reinforce that the harm to health associated with adverse weather is not inevitable. There are things we can do all year round, and during periods of adverse weather, to minimise the impact.

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We also publish a series of ‘action cards’ advising the NHS, social care organisations and professionals about the actions they should take to keep the public healthy and safe under different levels of alert. Our study highlights the complexity of how natural climate variability and human-induced climate change will come together in the extreme rainfall events we experience over the UK – it is far from a simple picture of more extreme events decade by decade as a steadily increasing trend.” This increase was found to differ across the UK. When looking regionally, future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent. A version of the Met Office Unified Model, the same that is used for the operational UK weather forecast, has been run 12 times at a resolution of 2.2km (known as k-scale modelling) to give an ensemble of 100-year climate projections. Cloud and patchy rain will push away to the south Wednesday morning. Any fog patches clearing around dawn. Then mostly dry with sunny periods and isolated coastal showers. Rather cold. Maximum temperature 4 °C. Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

An example of an intense rainfall event with 20mm/hr is London in July 2021, when 40mm of rain fell over three hours at Kew Gardens, flooding the underground and other infrastructure. Many people might be wondering if a warming UK climate means that there will be less illness and death caused by cold weather in future. The arrow shows the direction the wind is blowing. The letters show the direction the wind is blowing Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Steven Keates, said: “Many parts of the UK will see a very unsettled spell of weather through the second half of the coming week, into next weekend. A number of areas have the potential to see a lot of rain as well as strong winds at times. Of particular concern at the moment is eastern and central Scotland where some exceptional rainfall totals could build up, falling on ground already saturated after recent heavy rainfall. This could lead to some significant and widespread disruption. This new study has shown that during extreme rainfall events in the UK the intensity of downpours could increase by 5-15% per °C of regional warming. This change is also uneven across the UK, the map below shows the underlying change in the intensity of extreme hourly precipitation for every degree of warming. The greatest change is indicated by the blues in the Northwest of the UK, with the red and orange colours showing less change.This is like starting 12 weather forecasts and running them for 100 years, except the researchers are not interested in the weather on a given day but rather how the occurrence of local weather extremes varies year-by-year. By starting the model runs in the past it is also possible to verify the output against observations to assess the model performance.

The last decade has seen warmer and wetter weather than previous decades. It is projected that numbers of heat related deaths will triple by 2050, with the hottest summers on record that we have observed in recent years, becoming simply “normal” summers. Chance of precipitation represents how likely it is that rain (or other types of precipitation, such as Beware of offshore winds if you are using inflatables, paddle boards or kayaks. These winds can blow youGiven the surge in online fraud, many have inquired about effective strategies for online safety. Here are some recommended precautions below to protect yourself from potential scams.