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The Flexible Method: Prepare To Prosper In The Next Global Crisis

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That’s why the shape of economic recovery will be a kind of ugly “jagged swoosh,” a shape that reflects a yearslong stop-start recovery process and a global economy that will inevitably reopen in stages until a vaccine is in place and distributed globally. Conflict involving criminal groups and community self-defense groups is growing in northern and northwest Nigeria. Energy prices have been rising since 2021 because of the rapid economic recovery, weather conditions in various parts of the world, maintenance work that had been delayed by the pandemic, and earlier decisions by oil and gas companies and exporting countries to reduce investments. Russia began withholding gas supplies to Europe in 2021, months ahead of its invasion of Ukraine. All that led to already tight supplies. The Dayton peace agreement that has held Bosnia and Herzegovina together since the 1991-1995 war is unravelling. For more than 25 years, that accord has united two self-governing entities – one dominated by ethnic Serbs and the other by Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) – in a single state. But now Serb leader Milorad Dodik is threatening to withdraw from state institutions, including the army, that are shared among the country’s three main ethnic groups, Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, in a bid for greater autonomy that could be part of a drawn-out process of secession. His challenge to the Bosnian state is the most serious since the 1995 Dayton Accords ended the Bosnian war. It also comes at a moment of intense polarisation among the country’s three “constituent peoples”, as the constitution calls them. Trust among those communities’ politicians has almost entirely broken down, with a long-running dispute between Bosniak and Croat leaders over the country’s election law having produced a tactical alliance between Croats and Serbs – who already share a dislike of central authorities in Sarajevo. Learn more about the world's worst crises: 10. Mozambique: Humanitarian needs rise rapidly as insurgency intensifies

Launched: 1988. Where we focus: education; child protection; water and sanitation, including hand-washing station installation; support for health facilities; COVID-19 prevention information and training sessions; emergency response; economic recovery; women’s protection and empowerment. Haiti makes it into the Watchlist top 10 as political instability and gang violence surge following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in 2021. Global fertilizer prices have climbed even faster than food prices, which remain at a ten-year high themselves. The effects of the war in Ukraine, including higher natural gas prices, have further disrupted global fertilizer production and exports – reducing supplies, raising prices and threatening to reduce harvests. High fertilizer prices could turn the current food affordability crisis into a food availability crisis, with production of maize, rice, soybean and wheat all falling in 2022. Fifteen months of civil war have sown deep misery in Ethiopia’s north. Yet a bright spot unexpectedly emerged when the belligerents paused major offensive operations at the end of 2021. In a 19 December letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael announced that Tigray’s forces had withdrawn northward, calling for an inclusive dialogue and international action to protect the region. On 22 December, federal authorities said they would halt advances into Tigray as they press ahead with national dialogue plans. Although these were only small steps toward peace, they marked a welcome shift away from outright aggression. With more than 900 full-time staff in South Sudan, the IRC's work includes lifesaving health and nutrition, protection and economic recovery services. 6. Syria: Years of war trigger a health crisisFor humans, a comfortably livable planet starts to spiral away the more it heats up. At 1.5C, about 14% of the world’s population will be hit by severe heatwaves once every five years. with this number jumping to more than a third of the global population at 2C. COVID-19 is deepening Venezuela’s economic and hunger crises, while restrictions aimed at controlling the virus have eliminated many people’s livelihoods. And hampered by difficulties in coordinating creditor agreements, how and whether debt can be restructured, remains unpredictable.

Here, we break down what you need to know about the 10 countries likely to face the worst humanitarian crises next year. For more information and to see the full list of 20, read the 2023 Emergency Watchlist report or our Watchlist at a Glance summary. 10. Ukraine: War creates world’s largest displacement crisis Make clear that following the elections European actors will support an inclusive, locally driven constitutional reform process and in this context affirm previous commitments to support ending international supervision, including by closing the Office of the High Representative and ending the role of foreign judges on the Constitutional Court; Support efforts by the UN mission to encourage credible Sudanese efforts to forge consensus between civilian and military officials through inclusive talks, with participation from the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and neighbourhood resistance committees. The 2019 power-sharing agreement should be the blueprint for a compromise that could restore civilian-military governance and lead to elections. Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures,

Launched: 1989. Where we focus: capacity building in state health clinics; training local health workers; nutrition programs; sanitation services; support to survivors of sexual violence; child protection services; human rights training; cash assistance; job and livelihoods training. All sides in the conflict are, at times, acting in ways that increase harm for civilians and constrain humanitarian access. Conflict is likely to continue into 2023, with Ukrainians facing increased risk of injury, illness and death. Russian missile strikes could leave millions without water, electricity and heating in winter. 6.5 million Ukrainians have been displaced inside the country, while more than 7.8 million are refugees across Europe. How the IRC helps These temperature thresholds will again be the focus of upcoming UN climate talks at the COP26 summit in Scotland as countries variously dawdle or scramble to avert climate catastrophe. But the single digit numbers obscure huge ramifications at stake. “We have built a civilization based on a world that doesn’t exist anymore,” as Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, puts it. Heading into 2023, countries across the globe continue to struggle with decades-long conflicts, economic turmoil, and the devastating effects of climate change. The guardrails that once prevented such crises from spiraling out of control—including peace treaties, humanitarian aid, and accountability for violations of international law—have been weakened or dismantled.

Launched: 2019. Where we focus: clean water; sanitation service support; primary health care, including reproductive health care and child health care. Update—July 19, 2022: With a catastrophic famine looming on the horizon across East Africa, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) has released our first ever Crisis Alert update to our annual Emergency Watchlist, highlighting that over 3 million people could die without urgent international funding. Learn more about the famine threat.Local armed groups in eastern Congo, often vying for control of natural resources, will continue to make the country one of the most dangerous for civilians and aid workers. The IRC promotes economic recovery with job training, apprenticeships and small business support. We also support health facilities and mobile health teams with lifesaving trauma services as well as primary, reproductive and mental health services. 5. Yemen: Failed truce could lead to renewed conflict

COVID-19 is compounding what was already the worst economic crisis to hit Syria since the conflict began.Clark Kenting: Miss Freedom and Bluebird, among others, wear glasses and office attire when not in costume or when undercover. At least 129,000 people are expected to experience famine in Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia and South Sudan. Furthermore, any fragile progress already made in reducing numbers risks being lost, due to funding gaps and resulting cuts in assistance. The global community must not fail on its promise to end hunger and malnutrition by 2030. Editor's note, June 5, 2023: The IRC released a Watchlist Insight report focused on the Central Sahel, a region warming at 1.5x the global average. Long-term economic underdevelopment and political marginalization are making communities in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger more vulnerable to the effects of both the climate crisis and protracted armed conflict. For cost savings, you can change your plan at any time online in the “Settings & Account” section. If you’d like to retain your premium access and save 20%, you can opt to pay annually at the end of the trial.

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