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Experiencing the Impossible: The Science of Magic (The MIT Press)

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To formalise the concept, we propose to measure confidence in terms of progress made towards the goal previously thought to be most probable (i.e., the goal estimated to have the highest prior probability at the previous time-step). Remembering that o i is the most recently added observation at time-step i, the following definition measures the difference between optimal expected and actual progress.

How the scientific study of magic reveals intriguing—and often unsettling—insights into the mysteries of the human mind.

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

This effect is particularly significant when we consider the special status typically given to the initial state. Recall from Section 3 that the core principle of cost-based goal recognition is that of cost difference ( Eq. 1): the difference between the cost of an optimal plan versus the lowest cost achievable given actions that have been observed actually to have occurred. But to estimate either of those parameters, we need to know which state the agent started from. Now, contemporary models of goal recognition such as that at Section 3 typically make the strong assumption that the initial state is fully observable (e.g., Ramirez and Geffner, 2010; Vered et al., 2016; Pereira et al., 2020). But what if the human observer has forgotten the initial state and is instead referencing their first remembered state? Now the goal recognition system and the human may be trying to solve completely different problems. Ortega, J., Montañes, P., Barnhart, A. & Kuhn, G. (2018). Exploiting failures in metacognition through magic: Visual awareness as a source of visual metacognition bias. Consciousness and Cognition, 65, 152–168. doi:10.1016/j.concog.2018.08.008 Triplett, N. (1900). The psychology of conjuring deceptions. American Journal of Psychology, 11(4), 439–510. MIT Press Direct is a distinctive collection of influential MIT Press books curated for scholars and libraries worldwide.

Thomas, C., Didierjean, A. & Nicolas, S. (2016). Scientific study of magic: Binet’s pioneering approach based on observations and chronophotography. American Journal of Psychology, 129(3), 313–326. The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author. Author Contributions

Footnotes

In the US we meet with professor Anthony Barnhart. He’s a magician turned scientist who is using ancient knowledge to provide new insights into why – even when there are no distractions — we sometimes don’t see what’s right under our noses. We also meet Professor Amory Danek who is using the conjuror’s craft to study creativity and the “Aha!” moment when we get a sudden insight into how a problem can be solved. In other words, something happens in front of us but because our attention is elsewhere, we don’t register having seen it. Definition 1. A generic cost-based GR problem is a tuple P = ⟨ D , Ω , o ⃗ , G , s , P r o b ⟩ where: I strongly suspect -- although this is pure speculation -- that the practice of magic in effect revolved around effective projection. So, that a good magician was wholly unware of his own conscious doubts or suspicions and instead completely projected them into his magical items. This type of projection would insulate his intuitions from the second-guessing effects of reason and language and thus would produce on net an intuitive process much more potent than non-magicians could muster.

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