The Plausibility Problem: The Church And Same-Sex Attraction

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M. R. Lepper. Motivational considerations in the study of instruction. Cognition and Instruction, 5(4):289–309, 1988. Ed Shaw’s book The Plausibility Problemis not simply for those living with same-sex attraction, it’s for all of us. The ‘just say no’ approach to human sexuality does not work anymore; it’s left the church sounding like the Jesus way is a poor substitute for a good life. Ed calls us all to a ‘better way’ as radically inclusive church families who find our identity first and foremost in Christ, not in our sexuality - Steve Clifford

For this current project on plausibility, we identified a subset of 23 cases of explanations taken from Klein et al. (2021). The criteria for this subset included having richer details about the explainer or learner’s reasoning; and coming from sources we judged to be more reliable than our initial sample. Otherwise, the 23 cases should also be considered to be a sample of convenience because we did not use content or topics to pre-establish criteria for the inclusion or exclusion of cases inasmuch as this was an exploratory study and we did not want to pre-judge the issues. The subset of 23 cases is listed in Appendix A, and includes the Air France 447 crash, the USS Vincennes shootdown, the workings of AlphaGo, and the grounding of the cruise ship Royal Majesty. Most of the 23 cases involved events that had taken place but several involved general accounts of systems, such as #4 How does AlphaGo work? We consider this effort to be an initial exploration of what can be learned by taking a naturalistic perspective for examining plausibility judgments. We would hope that all our results would be True Positives, or True Negatives. If that were the case, all research studies would be conclusive. Unfortunately, science is never that simple. There are ways to reduce, but not eliminate False Negative, and False Positive Results. As we go through the elements of a hypothesis, and study design, we will modify the table above in a way that the area of each of the 4 cells in the grid, is proportional to the likelihood of each particular outcome. Did you ask the right questions?'Friends have challenged me when buying some of the more expensive and important things in life, from a mobile phone contract to a car to a home. My problem is that I haven’t got a clue what the right questions are in those circumstances, so each time I’ve had to phone a friend to help me out. Only then did I get the questions – and answers – I needed. Lombardi et al. (2016a) drew on the work of Kahneman and Klein (2009) in claiming that plausibility judgments can be “automatic” and intuitive (System 1) as well as deliberative and analytical (System 2). Further, the authors argued that analogies can be useful in gauging plausibility. In a theoretical paper, Leake (1995) distinguished several types of plausibility criteria: a minimality criteria consistent with Occam’s razor, a proof-based criterion, and criteria that are based on costs and probabilities. Leake (1995) presented a model for understanding everyday abductive reasoning, which is the process of forming a plausible explanation for an observed phenomenon based on past experience and current goals. Leake (1995) argued that this type of reasoning is guided by a combination of experience, goals, and context, and that it plays a crucial role in our ability to navigate the world and make decisions. The model suggests that everyday abductive explanation involves a cycle of observation, hypothesis formation, testing, and refinement, which allows us to generate and evaluate multiple explanations until a satisfactory one is found.

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Just to establish myself as Über Geek among SBM contributors I have created a Positive Predictive Value Calculator widget. The values are pre-populated for the problem above, but you can enter any values you wish (provided they are between 0 and 1). Remember: Sensitivity = Power; and Specificity = 1-P. In light of these earlier decisions, we would welcome an Enlarged Board of Appeal decision that clarifies the plausibility threshold, and when post-filed data can and cannot be taken into account. In designing a study, it is valuable to look at hypothetical results for a treatment that is effective, and for a treatment that is not effective. Our account is most closely aligned with the PJCC (Plausibility Judgments in Conceptual Change) model of Lombardi et al. (2016a). Their emphasis was on scientific beliefs, whereas ours is on the construction of stories to account for events. However, we did include several cases centered on beliefs rather than events, and we did not see any differences in the plausibility transition model for these cases. Conclusion This is the true cost of following Jesus. This is what it means to be a follower of Jesus. The problem is that we have become to comfortable with less than this. We have gotten used to "following Jesus" whilst also doing our own thing. We shy away from sacrifice. We gravitate towards living for me, whatever suits me.

Now lets look into the study details that can influence the relative likelihood of the 4 outcomes: TP, FN, FP, and TN.

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/ Supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author. Ethics statement However, we did not see a reflection of research and modeling that involved sensemaking. In all of the papers we reviewed in these three categories, only one mentioned causal inference– Lombardi et al. (2016a) raised the issue of physical mechanisms, which seemed to imply causality–but that was only a brief and passing mention. Connell and Keane (2004) alluded to causal factors in their discussion of prior knowledge as they studied the way subjects made plausibility judgments of textual material–sentence pairs. Our notion of plausibility is psychological, not philosophical, linguistic or computational. Plausibility judgments entail plausibility gaps that need to be filled in. These plausibility gaps stimulate curiosity. People search for additional information that will fill in the gaps. Few of us need reminding that issues of human sexuality have become increasingly political. From the legalisation of gay marriage without an electoral mandate, to the Church of England’s increasingly open attitude to same-sex relationships in church. All of us however need to remember that this is not simply a divisive political issue—it is a deeply personal one. Of the numerous books published recently on the church and same-sex attraction, this is the most helpful both in its fidelity to Scripture, and its personal pastoral sensitivity.

Can you be gay and Christian? Does the Bible really require celibacy outside of heterosexual marriage? Isn't it unrealistic and unfair, imposing loneliness and the loss of basic human satisfactions like sex and marriage? Is what the church teaches about homosexuality a plausible way of life?But what Ed Shaw advocates in this book is not just for people who struggle with same sex attraction. It is not just for those who want to help people who struggle with same sex attraction. Following on from our earlier articles on the subject ( 1, 2), the issue of ‘plausibility’ continues to be a hot topic at the EPO. Ed Shaw shares his story and perspective in this book with deep sincerity, conviction and honesty. He makes a profound contribution to the conversation about same-sex attraction. I am so glad I read this book and I wholeheartedly recommend it. - Amy Orr-Ewing In an empirical study, Collins and Michalski (1981) contrasted different types of possible inferences: argument-based, reference-based, descriptor-based, and term-based. They showed how to develop mathematical models and algorithms that capture the ways in which people reason and make decisions. This research drew on a range of fields, including cognitive psychology, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. It sought to understand the cognitive processes underlying human reasoning and to develop computational models that could simulate these processes. Maguire et al. (2011) and Foster and Keane (2015) described the judgment of surprisingness in terms of sensemaking difficulty. The sensemaking accounts of surprise and explanation form the basis of our description of plausibility judgments, as discussed in subsequent sections. However, with the exception of the work by Klein et al. (2006a, b, 2007), none of the other sensemaking investigations adopted a naturalistic perspective–they relied on a laboratory paradigm, and tightly constrained stimuli such as short passages crafted to increase or decrease plausibility. Here is one of the stimulus sets used by Foster and Keane (2015), the Rebecca at the Beach scenario.

Why would I endorse this book? Simply in the hope that as many people as possible might read it. Ed Shaw’s compelling honesty, vulnerable testimony, transparent compassion, rigorous submission to Scripture, and, above all, his thoroughgoing personal commitment to Christ make it so captivating and instructive. - Terry VirgoThis book gives a clear explanation of what the Bible says on this topic. It also gives a very honest and vulnerable personal account of one man's experience of this issue. If the answer to the first question is yes (post-published data must be disregarded if the proof of the effect rests exclusively on these data): can post-published data be taken into consideration if based on the information in the patent application the skilled person at the relevant date would have seen no reason to consider the effect implausible (ab initio implausibility)? Ed Shaw writes with the insight of a pastor, the boldness of a prophet, the integrity of a true disciple, and the warmth of a friend. This is a hugely important book with a vital message for the whole church. - Sam Allberry As a Christian who also knows same-sex desire first-hand, I would put a few things differently from how Ed Shaw does here. But that doesn’t stop me from applauding this biblically thorough, evangelistically zealous, humbly self-disclosing, and pastorally compassionate defence of traditional Christian sexual ethics. Ed Shaw’s life and teaching are an inspiring variation on what the church throughout history has celebrated as consecrated, holy virginity. May his tribe increase! - Wesley Hill, author of Washed and Waiting: Reflections on Christian Faithfulness and Homosexuality