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No model can describe reality in an absolute way, and this model, like any other, is an approximation of truth. But it can give us a glimpse to certain realities. The Age of Pioneers – in this Age, a relatively unknown people bursts onto the stage of history, with great initiative, optimism, and energy. It usually fights the older empires and nations around it and takes over their cities and networks. There is a powerful self-confidence, manifested through strong, astute, and energetic leaders. In the parabolic trajectory of an empire, what comes next is “High Noon,” the transition from conquest and commerce to affluence. “Service” is replaced by “selfishness.” A defensive mindset takes hold of the nation, manifested in such tangible signs as Hadrian’s Wall and the Maginot Line. Conquest and military readiness are seen as immoral by a stagnant, wealth-focused citizenry. Here’s a prediction. Putin is the strong man you’ve been looking for, a geopolitical genius who will create a triumphant Russian civilization that rapidly overtakes a dying, corrupt, over-extended GAE. Another outward change which invariably marks the transition from the Age of Conquests to the Age of Affluence is the spread of defensiveness. The nation, immensely rich, is no longer interested in glory or duty, but is only anxious to retain its wealth and its luxury.
Because of their prominent locations within the empire, their influence greatly exceeds their percentage of the population. Here diversity plainly leads to divisiveness. Later on, during the following ages of commerce and affluence, businessmen and merchants—who normally value material success and dislike taking unnecessary risks—take over at the highest levels of society. Their societies downplay the values of the soldier.As I finished this book, I kept thinking about how Hubbard would assess our current world. The Chinese civilization is still on the rise. The Western world appears to be “declining”. It appears that the obstacles faced by China according to Hubbard have for the most part disappeared. On the one hand, China’s societal and technological development during past decades has astounded the world; on the other, their racial potency due to its massive population was stalled by the one-child policy. Moreover, the arrival of the Communist regime led to the official eradication of the Chinese religious motive; however, many of its traits were preserved in the form of Taoist and Confucian values that still are highly influential in Chinese society.
In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends basically on the loyalty and self-sacrifice of the citizens. The impression that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human self-dedication, can only lead to collapse. As long as the enemy fights he must be beaten relentlessly, but a defeated enemy and especially the civilian population must be treated generously. While the nation is still affluent, all the diverse races may appear equally loyal. But in an acute emergency, the immigrants will often be less willing to sacrifice their lives and their property than will be the original descendants of the founder race.
The Fate of Empires is for those seeking guidance from antiquity on what causes the fall of great civilisations and what enables them to rise. Questions, that are every bit as new and contentious today, plagued Hubbard and spurred him to ask incendiary questions about what societies need, what individuals want, how we think of ourselves and what role (if any) religious belief and reason should play in the stable and lasting society. For example, late 19th-century middle-class Americans wanted their children to learn the values of prudence, saving and foresight as found in the stories of author Horatio Alger, whose heroes lead exemplary lives striving to succeed in the face of adversity and poverty. Intellectuals are also increasingly respected during the age of intellect. Expansion leads to the “Age of Commerce,” which features a great increase in trade and material wealth, especially when formerly fragmented lands are brought under one umbrella. (Glubb is very concerned about small states forming “an insuperable obstacle to trade and co-operation,” for which reason he is desirous of the creation of a European super-state. He expresses no hesitation at this goal, another strike against him, given what we see the European Union has devolved into. “Great power” is a term nobody would apply to it.) In the beginning of the Age of Commerce, virtues such as “courage, patriotism and devotion to duty” are still ubiquitous, but part of the Age of Commerce is that enterprise is turned toward seeking new forms of wealth, which leads to the “Age of Affluence.” The turn to a focus on money erodes virtue; it “silences the voice of duty.” Somewhere in here is the noontime of the empire. Yet the first signs of internal decay become visible, in particular a loss of initiative as organizations of the society calcify and virtue seeps away. It is very difficult to do one's duty. I was considered a barbarian because at the storming of the Praga 7,000 people were killed. Europe says that I am a monster. I myself have read this in the papers, but I would have liked to talk to people about this and ask them: is it not better to finish a war with the death of 7,000 people rather than to drag it on and kill 100,000.
The love of profit, however, gradually displaces the sense of duty in the populace. Affluence “silences the voice of duty,” Glubb writes, pointing to records of students in the Arabian Empire of the 12th century who no longer studied “to acquire learning and virtue, but to obtain those qualifications which will enable them to grow rich.” With Henry Field) The Yezidis, Sulubba, and Other Tribes of Iraq and Adjacent Regions, G. Banta, 1943. During the last stages of decadence and decline, an empire's people often think most highly of and imitate athletes, musicians and actors—despite how corrupt these celebrities' private lives are. What are some common features of an empire's culture in its declining period? Glubb describes developments like these:
Poor, hardy, often half-starved and ill-clad, they abound in courage, energy and initiative, overcome every obstacle and always seem to be in control of the situation. As people cynically give up looking for solutions to the problems of life and society, they drop out of the system. They then turn to mindless entertainment, to luxuries and sexual activity, and to drugs or alcohol. So GAE is going to be over soon. No surprise there. What comes next? The common, trite answer is that the Chinese will replace us as the world’s foremost empire. But that’s silly—they’re only a few decades behind us on the endless treadmill that feeds empires into the furnace of history. Or, more accurately, they will never even become an empire, having kneecapped themselves by killing their children. The Party has woken up to this fact, and has begun desperate measures to wrench China off the treadmill; these will not be successful, although they may prevent China from becoming as disgusting a spectacle as GAE has become. The short answer is that no existing polity in the world today, great or small, has any apparent chance of becoming, or remaining, a relevant empire. The first stage Glubb identifies is what he calls the “Age of Pioneers”, or the “outburst.” Smaller nations or tribes overrun or displace defensively minded ones. Examples presented in Fate of Empires include the Islamic breakout from the Arabian-peninsula in the 7th century, and conversely the Spanish Reconquista and subsequent empire, seeded from two small Christian territories. Glubb calls the people who drive these outbursts “poor, hardy, often half-starved and ill-clad.” Further, “they abound in courage, energy, and initiative” similar to the salt-of-the-earth militia and ill-trained Continental Regulars who defeated the British Army during the American Revolution.
He spent the remainder of his life writing books and articles, mostly on the Middle East and on his experiences with the Arabs. Lunt, James, "Glubb, Sir John Bagot (1897–1986)", rev., Oxford Dictionary of National Biography, Oxford University Press, 2004, ISBN 0-00-272638-6This first age merges into expansion, the “Age of Conquests.” Conquest is accomplished by aggression, most often by subduing existing civilizations, but also by grabbing uncivilized lands, if any are available, simply by shouldering existing populations aside, such as the United States’s “conquest of barbarian peoples.” Psychologically, the nascent empire shows “unresting enterprise in every field,” combined with “readiness to improvise and experiment.” That is, conquest is not merely military; it is full spectrum aggressive achievement.
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